more theory Post Source: www.prospect.org Posted: Nov 24 2008 20:33:26
The distinction between political realignments and policy realignments is an interesting one. Essentially, the evidence that our elections undergo enduring realignments is fairly weak, but it does seem to be the case that there are policy breakthroughs which produce torrents of similar legislation, from both Democratic and Republican administration. Via Henry Farrell, Paul Pierson offers the argu...... [Show More]
veteran politicians Post Source: theenlighteneddespot.com Posted: Nov 20 2008 21:44:27
People are making far too much of this from Jeremy Teigen:
On the Monday before Election Day, Timothy Noah at Slate asked “Why don’t war heroes win?” He looked at the past fifty years of head-to-head presidential match-ups and noted that John McCain’s then-likely loss put him in the company of George McGovern , Bob Dole , and John Kerry . Noah quotes David Greenberg , who attribu...... [Show More]
Matt Yglesias on Jeremy Teigen, other than being sort of a gross image, leads to the always-fun point-missing double. Teigen points out that military service doesn’t really help one in electoral politics . Matt follows up with agreement and his notion that “as a governa nce matte r it’s useful to have veterans in the congress.” What are both missing? The people running for t...... [Show More]
Via John Sides comes some political science research from Jeremy Tergen examining whether past military service improves a candidate’s vote share in congressional elections. The conclusion? Not really:
In general, veteran status has small effects that are not statistically distinguishable from 0. Democratic vets did better than their nonveteran peers in 2002, but did no better in 2006. ...... [Show More]
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بالضبط.. في 1 يونيو الماضي - لا أدري كم يوافق بالتاريخ الهجري! - أرسلت إلى شقيقي الأكبر (محمد) المغترب في أمريكا رسالة.. إليكم فحواها:
.
السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
طبعاً تطورت أنا شويتين… وصرت أتلاقط مع بريط...... [Show More]
Has the 2008 election ushered in a new era of Democratic hegemony, akin to those enjoyed by the Democrats beginning in 1932 and the Republicans beginning in 1980? Two considerations suggest yes.
First, a Republican president is presiding over a deep economic crisis. The early-1930s and late-1970s crises scarred the party in power for a generation, and this one has the potential to do the same &#...... [Show More]
links for 20081112 Post Source: jacobchristensen.name Posted: Nov 12 2008 17:30:23
Creative Class » Blog Archive » Higher Ed: Next Bloated Industry to Go? - Creative Class
(tags: usa highereducation university )
John Sides/The Monkey Cage: Book Review: Eurostars and Eurocities
Adrian Favell’s Eurostars and Eurocities investigates migration within Europe, focusing on West Europeans who have left their countries of origin to live elsewhere in Europe. Th...... [Show More]
This “Joe the Plumber” crap will just. Not. Die.
First, he got his own record deal , as if country music hasn’t suffered enough. And now, via The Monkey Cage, he has a website . One that looks like it came from a horrifying, dystopian alternate-history 1998. Just look at that insufferably smug face.
And a book. He has a goddamn book coming out. ARGHWTF.
Congratulations ...... [Show More]
John Sides/The Monkey Cage: Book Review: Eurostars and Eurocities : Adrian Favellâs Eurostars and Eurocities investigates migration within Europe, focusing on West Europeans who have left their countries of origin to live elsewhere in Europe. This kind of migration…...... [Show More]
Hard to say, says John Sides . It sort of depends on what you mean by "mand ate." And whether Republicans decide they heard the same electoral message as Democrats. I’d just add that what "the losing side" thinks matters less than what five or seven senators on the losing side think. The question is not whether the Republican leadership is cowed, but whether their ability...... [Show More]
I’ve been too sick and busy with teaching and research to try to fact-check all the election interpretations out there, so let me recommend the excellent "Truths and Myths about the 2008 Election" series by John Sides of GW and The Monkey Cage , which distills the relevant political science for a general audience:
1. The Fundamentals Mattered
2. OMG THE BRADLEY EFFECT OMG TH...... [Show More]
The Monkey Cage: Truths and Myths about the 2008 Election, Part II : Second, if you look state-by-state, there is no evidence that he systematically under-performed viz. the polls...... [Show More]
I’m cribbing liberally from Steven Greene’s blog (Fully Myelinated) , but thought it worth mentioning that the effect of the economy on the election has been overstated — particularly by Republican pundits. The trend among many GOP talking heads (and others) over the past day or two has been that John McCain lost this election because of the economy and Preside...... [Show More]
Was the financial crisis an important factor in McCain’s trouble with voters?:
Crisis? What Crisis?, by Phil Klinkner : Lots of chatter, especially from the
GOP that the September financial crisis did McCain’s chances. I’m skeptical.
Look at this graph from Pollster.com. It shows the poll average trendline from
August 22 (the day Obama announced his pick of Joe Biden for VP...... [Show More]
For months I’ve been emphasizing the role of the political fundamentals in determining presidential election outcomes. Last night that approach was again vindicated. The median forecast from leading election models was that Barack Obama would receive 52% of the two-party vote. According to the current numbers on CNN’s website, he’s at 53.1%. And despite the (ove...... [Show More]
update on turnout Post Source: cavehicdragones.org Posted: Nov 05 2008 17:45:52
The Monkey Cage suggests that turnout was indeed lower than expected. That is, we are not going to see a surge of new participation. This may explain McCain’s lower-than-Kerry numbers and Obama’s marginal gains over Bush’s numbers.
This raises a serious question: why, despite so much get-out-the-vote efforts by both parties, did turn-out not rise dramatically? We have exit pol...... [Show More]
Yeah, OK:
A preliminary exit poll has shown that US president-elect Barak Obama received 77 percent of the Jewish vote in Tuesday’s presidential election, whilst his rival Republican John McCain received 22 percent. In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won 74 percent of the Jewish vote, and in 2000 Al Gore received 79 percent of the Jewish vote. The MSNBC poll put Jews ...... [Show More]
C’est idiot à dire, mais c’est la première fois que je soutiens un candidat présidentiel qui finit par remporter l’élection.
Mise à jour (remise à jour) : pour ceux qui veulent s’amuser – eux aussi – avec les exit polls , voici une nouvelle série de données âge, sexe, origine ethnique, revenus et diplôme.
Cosma Shazili : I am fuckin...... [Show More]
I was going to do a more comprehensive post on this subject, but time is running out:
Senate: Dems +7
House: Dems +20-25
Turnout: 65%
And again, my EC prediction : 364-174 for Obama
Some other predictions from around the ‘Sphere:
James Joyner: Election Prediction: Obama 325, McCain 213 (Updated) .
Nate Silver: Today’s Polls and Final Election Projection: O...... [Show More]
The Monkey Cage led me to a paper by Len Adleman and Mark Schiling that compares the election polls made by American networks. They’ve compared them to the polls made by Gallup And Rasmussen, and show that the political inclination of the networks seem to influence the polls. Fox’s polls show a trend of predicting more to the right, and CBS/NYT more to the left. This is really inter...... [Show More]
links october 2008 Post Source: lanekenworthy.net Posted: Oct 31 2008 20:11:36
U.S. economy
The next meltdown: credit-card debt , BusinessWeek
Crisis? Not if we take a long view , by Michael Clemens (via Chris Blattman)
Three trends and a train wreck , by Tyler Cowen
Two big intellectual victories for Ben Bernanke , by Brad DeLong
Everything you need to know about the financial crisis , by Doug Diamond and Anil Kashyap
The stimulus plan we need now...... [Show More]
John Sides says "I’ve never understood the appeal of term limits. (And I think many political scientists would agree.) Who provides the expertise when the legislators are only in office for a few years?" Well, no one (or, technically, staffs, but in the minds of voters, no one). This is part and parcel of our culture’s weird belief that governance is not a profe...... [Show More]
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