On Friday night’s episode of Mad Money, Jim Cramer stated that he did not believe in technical chart analysis. Today, here on my blog, Doug Kass commented that technical analysis is not his approach. Fine. But why don’t we take a look at a little example that has made me an absurdly huge return this month?
(Sorry for the crappy charts below, but it is late at night and it would take a long time to fix them.)
On May 6th, I posted my first chart of the “rising wedge” pattern that I spotted forming on the SPY chart:
On May 23rd, I posted an update with the chart below (click to enlarge) where I accurately predicted the S&P 500 would drop another 50 points to 1325. (I was off by 6 points as the S&P hit 1331.29 on June 12th):
On June 1st, Barron’s published a me-too piece on the rising wedge.
And here is a chart of my baby today, the bearish rising wedge pattern, all grown up:
This is a pure...
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No Bottom for XLFFrom: trivisonno.com
Post Date: 2008-06-15 11:32:30
The XLF financial-sector ETF bounced off of its March 17th low last week, but are bulls like Jim Cramer and Doug Kass (who is long Citigroup) justified in their jubilation? Not a chance. To see the no-brainer evidence for my contention, just punch up a chart of the BKX banking index. Not only has the BKX plunged through the March low, but it will soon be testing the fabled October 2002 low (just as I predicted on May 28th.)
XLF will continue to follow the BKX down.
Cram...
more Low-Volume Rally Doesn’t ImpressFrom: trivisonno.com
Post Date: 2008-06-13 13:36:50
Volume was down for today’s rally in the SPY, QQQQ, IWM, and XLF compared to the down-days this week. And since “volume follows trend”, we can be assured that the trend is still down.
A good deal of the volume was short-covering too. The evidence for that can be seen at 10am when the Consumer Sentiment number dropped yet again; this time to a 15-year low. Instead of falling, the market sprang upward. A lot of traders actually believed Larry Kudlow’s contention that the...
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