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The Obama Eighteen

Post Date: Jun 25, 2008 6:45 p.m.
Ranked website: fivethirtyeight.com (Ranks #474 of 3,783,534)

For full text please visit source:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/obama-eighteen.html


Courtesy of the Politico , Barack Obama’s campaign has telegraphed the electoral focus of its fall campaign. Three are its highest profile defenses (PA, WI, MI), one is a Kerry state in which McCain runs particularly well (NH), and 14 are Bush 2004 states where Obama thinks he has an opportunity to gain on the previous map (IA, NM, OH, CO, VA, FL, MO, NV, IN, ND, NC, MT, GA, AK). Let’s take a look at how FiveThirtyEight breaks down each of these states in terms of polling average, trend adjustment, 538 regression, and 538 prediction. This map shows a baseline of

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