MT-Pres: Obama ahead

Karl Rove: Mr. Obama may be overreaching by running ads in North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, Nebraska, Montana, Alaska and North Dakota – states Republicans won by comfortable margins in recent years. It would require a shift of between one-sixth and over one-quarter of the vote to win any of them. Shifts that large rarely happen. Big shifts do occur – witness West Virginia in 2000, which swung more than 20 points between 1996 (when Bill Clinton carried the state) and 2000 (when George W. Bush did) – but these require sharp contrasts on big issues, not just money. Money may be the mother’s milk of politics, in Jesse Unruh’s famous phrase, but when running for president, money alone can’t buy a candidate love. Cash matters, but being a good candidate and right on the issues matters even more. Hey Karl, meet your "big shift": Rasmussen. 7/1. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (4/6 results) McCain (...